Real Estate REITs … A double dip will crush them
I made a list of the ones that look the best to me from the short side: all REITs
This is based on:
Large market cap (options available),
High forward price/earnings ratio; the higher the better, but over 30 min
Elevated debt/equity ratio, preferably > 1.25
Reasonable short float right now – I don’t want to short something that’s already heavily shorted (8% of short is my cutoff)
Charts that look questionable (either they are sky high in need of breather or they are breaking down)
IYR - Real Estate ETF: IYR
These are the ones I think look the best from my scans:
1. SPG – Simon Property (already short, commercial retail) $35.4B, forward P/E 41, Debt/Equity: 3.59; low cash; short float 4.5% (con: super strong though..great relative strength on the weekly chart, bearish rising wedge on daily chart)
2. EQR – Equity Residential Props (residential) $18.6B, P/E 62; D/E: 1.83; short float 4.6% // good relative strength lately
3. BXP – Boston Properties (office); $15.6B, P/E 48; D/E: 1.69; short float kind of high 7.4% // con: good relative strength on weekly
4. ESS – Essex Property Trust (residential) $4.6B, P/E:95, D/E: 2.0, Short 6.8% // con: good relative strength on weekly
5. HST – Host Hotels & Resorts (hotel) $11B, P/E: 396, D/E 0.89; Short float: 6.4% // weak relative strength
6. CPT – Camden Property (residential) $4.7B, P/E: 80, D/E: 1.48, short 2.5% // new all time recent highs
7. HR – Healthcare Realty (heatlh) $1.4B, P/E 89; D/E: 1.43, short 5.9% // serious dog
8. OFC – Corporate Office Props (office) $2.2B, P/E: 36; D/E: 2.0, short 4.8% // rolling over, looks bad
9. KRC – Kilroy Realty (office) $2.3B, P/E: 104, D/E: 1.36, short 7.4% // dog
10. O – Realty Income (retail) $4.2B, P/E: 27, D/E: 0.76, short 6.7% // supper strong since crash, weak lately
Click on the hyperlinks above to see the chart. So maybe you have some feedback on these but these are the ones that look good to me – ordered by what looks most lucrative if the economy goes into a double dip. My top #4 ideas are really strong on the weekly charts, which could be bad, but they are also considerably overbought right now.
